The Correct Methodology of March

My method of selecting teams for March Madness has evolved over time, and I have become more nuanced as I've grown older. I used to select Indiana to go to the Final Four every year (they're missing from my bracket this year... hmmm). Homerism will only get you burned in March, and if you have any sort of wager riding on it (or your own pride), it will only derail your hopes of having bragging rights with your family and friends for a few weeks. I do take a few things into account, but the X-Factor is my gut. Now, my gut has grown a little bit over the past few years, which means it is even more trust worthy. So, if all else fails, go with your gut. If it doesn't feel right to pick the underdog, don't. But at least pick one or more underdogs, because, after all, it is March Madness.

The four factors of the correct methodology of March are:

1. Coaching
Coaching and strategy might be one of the most under-rated and over looked aspects of March Madness. There's a reason Bob Knight won three championships: he was a great coach and he put the fear of Almighty God into his players. You need to look for the good coaches with something to prove. I think one of those guys this year is Bo Ryan (Wisconsin). He's always one of the best coaches in the Big Ten, and this year Wisconsin has underachieved (by their own standards) and run an offense that could be problematic for a team like Pittsburgh. Wisconsin will draw the Pitt bigs (most importantly, Blair) outside with their funky offense. Other coaches I think will do favorably in the tournament: Jay Wright (Villanova), John Calipari (Memphis), Tom Izzo (Michigan State).

2. Defense
Defense may not win championships, but it doesn't hurt. UCONN's Thabeet stands head and shoulders (literally) above his competition, and should be a serious factor. The only way to beat UCONN is to spread them out and slash, because Thabeet will just dominate inside if you let him. I would not be surprised to see UCONN win it all or be taken down early by a slashing team that just happens to be shooting well on one given day. However, if they do win it all, it will be with gritty defense that starts in the middle. I also like Memphis and Purdue and their tenacity on defense.

3. Momentum
The big mo needs to be in your corner, and I think a good showing at a league tournament can take a team further than it really could have gone on its own. Syracuse and West Virginia have really played well in the Big East tournament, and I expect that to carry over into March Madness. I think Purdue might also experience a boost by winning the Big Ten tournament.

4. Cinderella
Or perhaps "cinder-fellas"? The thing that is really beautiful about March (and what is missing from Indiana High School basketball) is that there truly are David and Goliath matchups. Now, more often than not, David is destroyed by Goliath's sharpshooters, athleticism, rebounding, and overall better player quality. But the Davids have been getting more athletic as well. Remember George Mason? We're somewhat removed from that run in the tournament, but they beat far superior teams from Michigan State, North Carolina, and UCONN before getting beat by the mini-dynasty from Florida. You need to pick some upsets, and I particularly like Cleveland State, Utah State, Akron, and Wisconsin. The slipper fits someone every year, and while Cinderella might not stick around until the end of the dance, some Cinderella team will at least make an appearance and wow sports fans across the country yet again.

So there it is, four elements to take into consideration. And for my picks...

Sean's Picks:
Sweet 16: Louisville, Cleveland State, West Virginia, Michigan State, UCONN, Purdue, Utah State, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Villanova, Duke, North Carolina, Akron, Syracuse, Clemson

Elite Eight: Cleveland State, Michigan State, Purdue, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Villanova, North Carolina, Syracuse

Final Four: Michigan State, Purdue, Villanova, North Carolina

Final Game: North Carolina over Michigan State (80-70)

Thus concludes a more logical and informed method of prediction. And by its logical and informed nature, my methodology is sure to fail. Best of luck and enjoy the Madness!